Avatar for victoria 24 октября 2003

Please answer only ONE of the following questions:

  1. In your opinion, was the United States justified in withdrawing from the negotiations of the Protocol to the Biological Weapons Convention in July 2001? Make a coherent and clear argument on the basis of what you learned from the lectures and readings.

2. Do you agree with Professor William Perry’s hierarchy of threats facing the U.S.? Make a coherent and clear argument and justify your position.

3. Why did Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus give up the nuclear arsenals that they inherited from the Soviet Union? Which of the three models of proliferation introduced in Professor Scott Sagan’s lecture can best explain the behavior of these three states?

They were late wuth posting the questions, but other groups have already written essays. We have to choose the topic.
And btw, what about midterm?

Avatar for amix спустя 1 час (24 октября 2003)
amix сотрудник

oh goddamn.

midterm... the only thing i know is that it was cancelled today cz of internal USU water-supply problems, wasn't it? if yes, i dunno when will it be... if not, i've lost the game :shocked:

anyway, only 2morrow evening or at Sunday will I be able to think about Stanford :(
post-posting note: <b>MID-TERM</b> EXAM will be @ MONDAY, <b>27 OCTOBER, 17:00</b> (as Ekaterina Arslanova says)

Avatar for shestop спустя 38 дней (1 декабря 2003)

something like this:) hope, it will be OK, because i don't remember already that lecture. anyway I think this essay would be without any evaluation (too late).
Andrey or Vika, please, post it by yourself (I still can't do it - not that lucky) and please, add something like that «we are soooooooo sorry to post it so late...». and than, please, (one more please:) write, that you had sent it, OK?

Lecture 5. Question #2.
The hierarchy of threats facing the USA made by Professor William J. Perry is quite profound and relevant to the situation, existing in the world today, when non-state actors appeared on the international scene and sometimes their actions constitute a threat to other states, to people all over the world.
We completely agree, that it’s worth to  construct the hierarchy in terms of “expected value” of an event, as William Perry did, and to take into consideration how easy it is to deliver the weapon of mass destruction on the territory of the state. It’s obviously that the nuclear weapon is much more destructive and faster in its consequences, but both creation and delivery of nuclear weapon are very expensive and complex. Whereas creation of biological and chemical weapon is much more cheaper, it could be delivered without any serious problem ( seeds or fungus in a letter, someone could serve as a carrier of disease…a lot of varieties of transportation). B/CW “can be produced without the massive infrastructure required for their nuclear counterparts, and biotechnology pharmaceutical developments are proliferating these production techniques” (William J. Perry. Preparing for the Next Attack- attached materials). There is almost no way to control the entry of  biological / chemical weapons in the state. Some sorts of chemical weapon is so easy to make, even using ordinary consumer goods, that contain chemical elements - chemical weapon could be produced inside the state where it is supposed to implement the act of  terrorism. Biological and chemical weapon is the best choice for terrorists.
That’s why such kind of weapon, delivered by unconventional means should be posed on the first place of the threats hierarchy. On the second place I would also put nuclear weapons, delivered by unconventional means, because it’s very difficult to detect it and to preempt the entry of  the weapon inside the state - purchase and delivery go through the illicit channels. As pr. William Perry noticed, “even the best intelligence efforts can never offer perfect protection” (Preparing for the Next Attack- attached materials).
There is a sense in distinguishing different types of missiles, used to deliver weapon of mass destruction. The impact of weapon and the ability of state to strike the missile, to detect it, depends on the fact, if it’s used short –and- medium- range missiles or long -range missiles. The fact is that proliferation of military technologies already allowed to acquire short –and- medium- range missiles to some “dangerous” Arabic states; North Korea declared to be the nuclear power. The probability of using such methods is high enough. It seems to be true, that “potentially all countries, that posses or want to posses missiles weapon, have a possibility to create their own chemical weapon or other weapon of mass destruction in order to use it in warheads” (Nikolay Mihailov. About NMD Treaty 1972). Using the same criterion that B/CW is  more cheap, easy to use, and besides, the spread of disease would be accompanied by spread of fear and increased attention to the executor of terrorist act - on the third place I would put B/CW delivered by short –and- medium- range missiles. And only on the fourth place- NW delivered by short –and- medium- range missiles. It remained to put weapon of mass destruction delivered by Inter- Continental Ballistic Missiles on the 5 place. Only few states posses such type of missiles, it’s expensive to make them. Such possibility of using them also serves as  “nuclear umbrella”, permitting to keep the peace in the world.

Avatar for amix спустя 33 минуты (1 декабря 2003)
amix сотрудник

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Andrey or Vika, please, post it by yourself (I still can't do it - not that lucky) and please, add something like that «we are soooooooo sorry to post it so late...». and than, please, (one more please:) write, that you had sent it, OK?

I've just dunnit (using login Arslanova, btw) in the thread «week 5»; i don't think he can miss it cz all the new postings are listed for him with no regard to belonging to a thread.
And I wrote, «We apologize for posting the essay so late. Anyway, here it is».
I imagine his face when he discovers that the essay is posted so late. :D

P.S.: I wonder if Vika vitits this forum. I recently saw her nick a couple of times in the forums' «Online» list, but as there's no message by her, I'm confused... The question is not if she's gonna write her essay, but even if she's alive :)

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